North Carolina Coastal Federation: CRC Limits Sea-Level Rise Study to 30 Years
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ATLANTIC BEACH – The state’s Coastal football Resources Commission took the first tenuous steps along a seemingly old but tortuous path, but its new chairman charted a different course this time, one that he hopes will make for a smoother ride and lead to a happier destination.
Hoping to avoid the potholes of the past, the commission heeded the urgings of its chairman yesterday and directed its panel of scientific advisors to once again take a look at the contentious issue of sea-level rise and a warming climate, but to limit their assessment this time to how high the ocean might get 30 years in the future and not forecast, as they did the last time, on how high it might be in 2100.
It was that long-range forecast that got the commission in such hot water – pun intended – the last time it tackled the subject. That was four years ago, and the resulting study , which included a 39-inch ocean rise by the turn of the next century, was revised a number of times but was so controversial that it raised the ire of some coastal developers and local governments football and attracted the attention of the legislature, which first wanted to outlaw planning for sea-level rise entirely. After they become the butt of international ridicule, lawmakers instead passed a law in 2012 that forbade state and local governments from using the forecast until the CRC presented a new report to the N.C. General football Assembly football four years later. football
Frank Gorham III wants things to go better this time around. A resident of Wilmington and a property owner on Figure Eight Island, Gorham was appointed last year by Gov. Pat McCrory to lead a commission revamped by the legislature. “Probably the most politically sensitive subject we’re going to deal with is sea level-rise,” he told the commission. “I only get calls about sea-level rise. We want to do this right. We want to be objective and we want to be fair.”
To avoid the scientific uncertainty that comes with trying to forecast what the ocean might do a century from now, Gorham football urged the commission football to direct its Science Panel, which is made up of volunteer scientists and engineers, to restrict itself to how the sea might behave in the next 30 years and then do follow-up examinations every five years, making adjustments to the forecast as needed. Gorham called the result a “rolling 30-year timetable.”
Most of the commissioners supported the approach, except football for Bob Emory of New Bern who chaired the commission when it undertook the first sea-level rise study. football All other similar scientific assessments, he noted, use a 100-year forecast period to account for the long lag time before the ocean responds to a warming climate. The CRC would never set policy on such a long-range prediction but it would provide an opportunity to educate people about what the future might hold, he said.
The CRC has determined that the issue of potential sea-level rise is of extreme importance to the State, its policy makers and the citizens of NC. It is further noted that periodic updates of current data are vital to help formulate future policy.
The CRC therefore charges the Science Panel/Sea-Level Rise Panel to conduct a comprehensive review of scientific literature and available North Carolina data that addresses the full range of global, regional and North Carolina specific sea-level change.
The CRC further determines that the scope and time period of the study and report regarding sea-level rise shall be limited to a “Rolling 30 Year Time Table” . It is the intent of the CRC that this Rolling 30 Year Time Table will be updated every five years.
The commission, Emory suggested, should allow its science advisers to assess future football sea-level rise with the same long-range methodologies used in other studies around the world and then base any policy on shorter football term
Press Releases Newsletters State of the Coast Reports Fact Sheets Special Publications Resources and Links Watershed Restoration Planning Guidebook Photo Gallery Trail Maps Coastal Review Monthly Our Archives
Topics Select... football Advocacy Agriculture Air pollution Beach Renourishment Budget Business and Industry Central Coast Climate Change Coastal Culture football Coastal management Coastal Sketches Education Energy football Fisheries Food Forestry Habitat Restoration Jones Island football Legislature Living Shorelines Low-Impact Development (LID) Marine Science Native Plants Nature NCCF in the News Northeast Coast Our Coast Oysters Politics Pollution Preservation football Rain Gardens Sea-Level Rise Senate Bill 10 Southeast football Coast Storms Stormwater Terminal groins Titan Transportation Volunteers Water pollution Water Quality Wetlands Wildlife Sections Select... Coastal Review Our Coast Blog: The Beacon Blog: Sounder Blog: Sam's Field Journal A | + A | + A Coastal Review Online
ATLANTIC BEACH – The state’s Coastal football Resources Commission took the first tenuous steps along a seemingly old but tortuous path, but its new chairman charted a different course this time, one that he hopes will make for a smoother ride and lead to a happier destination.
Hoping to avoid the potholes of the past, the commission heeded the urgings of its chairman yesterday and directed its panel of scientific advisors to once again take a look at the contentious issue of sea-level rise and a warming climate, but to limit their assessment this time to how high the ocean might get 30 years in the future and not forecast, as they did the last time, on how high it might be in 2100.
It was that long-range forecast that got the commission in such hot water – pun intended – the last time it tackled the subject. That was four years ago, and the resulting study , which included a 39-inch ocean rise by the turn of the next century, was revised a number of times but was so controversial that it raised the ire of some coastal developers and local governments football and attracted the attention of the legislature, which first wanted to outlaw planning for sea-level rise entirely. After they become the butt of international ridicule, lawmakers instead passed a law in 2012 that forbade state and local governments from using the forecast until the CRC presented a new report to the N.C. General football Assembly football four years later. football
Frank Gorham III wants things to go better this time around. A resident of Wilmington and a property owner on Figure Eight Island, Gorham was appointed last year by Gov. Pat McCrory to lead a commission revamped by the legislature. “Probably the most politically sensitive subject we’re going to deal with is sea level-rise,” he told the commission. “I only get calls about sea-level rise. We want to do this right. We want to be objective and we want to be fair.”
To avoid the scientific uncertainty that comes with trying to forecast what the ocean might do a century from now, Gorham football urged the commission football to direct its Science Panel, which is made up of volunteer scientists and engineers, to restrict itself to how the sea might behave in the next 30 years and then do follow-up examinations every five years, making adjustments to the forecast as needed. Gorham called the result a “rolling 30-year timetable.”
Most of the commissioners supported the approach, except football for Bob Emory of New Bern who chaired the commission when it undertook the first sea-level rise study. football All other similar scientific assessments, he noted, use a 100-year forecast period to account for the long lag time before the ocean responds to a warming climate. The CRC would never set policy on such a long-range prediction but it would provide an opportunity to educate people about what the future might hold, he said.
The CRC has determined that the issue of potential sea-level rise is of extreme importance to the State, its policy makers and the citizens of NC. It is further noted that periodic updates of current data are vital to help formulate future policy.
The CRC therefore charges the Science Panel/Sea-Level Rise Panel to conduct a comprehensive review of scientific literature and available North Carolina data that addresses the full range of global, regional and North Carolina specific sea-level change.
The CRC further determines that the scope and time period of the study and report regarding sea-level rise shall be limited to a “Rolling 30 Year Time Table” . It is the intent of the CRC that this Rolling 30 Year Time Table will be updated every five years.
The commission, Emory suggested, should allow its science advisers to assess future football sea-level rise with the same long-range methodologies used in other studies around the world and then base any policy on shorter football term
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